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GBX Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Review management commentary and the analyst Q&A from GBX's Q3 2026 earnings call. Use the transcript to track changes in demand, guidance, operating priorities, and the KPIs behind the company's reported results.

Operator: Hello. And welcome to The Greenbrier Companies Third Quarter Fiscal 26 Earnings Conference Call. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Until that time, all lines will be in a listen-only mode. At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Travis Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

Travis Williams: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and everyone welcome to our Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Conference Call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President; Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and President of the Americas; and Michael Donfris, Senior Vice President and CFO. Following our update on Greenbrier's Q3 performance and our outlook for fiscal 2026, we will open the call for questions. With that, I will turn it over to Lorie.

Lorie Tekorius: Thank you, Travis, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Greenbrier delivered solid commercial, operational and financial results in the third quarter. Global macroeconomic conditions in our markets support freight railcar lease rates and utilization where Greenbrier is further strengthening as we serve our shipper customers. Those same conditions pressure demand for new freight railcars, though maintenance and replacement needs continue and provide a foundation for future orders. This combination of market dynamics and a dedicated focus on operational efficiency led to sequentially improved gross margin and earnings. The improvements made across Greenbrier over the last several years are yielding benefits and combined with operating discipline, cost control and commercial excellence create a more resilient earnings profile through cycles — we're demonstrating our ability to deliver higher lows across the cycle due to the strength of our business platform. Our commercial team continues to expand Greenbrier's market reach, adding new customers while strengthening relationships with long-standing partners supported by our lease origination capabilities. These proficiencies leverage our integrated go-to-market model across direct sales, leasing partnerships and syndication. In our core North American market, railcar deliveries have averaged about 35,000 per year since 2020. Current industry forecasts indicate less than 25,000 new railcars for calendar 2026, which will be the lowest level recorded since 2010. The projection for calendar 2027 shows an increase to over 34,000 deliveries. Rail loading trends are up in several key commodity categories, including grain, petroleum products, chemicals and intermodal, although intermodal activity is uneven as some commodities are shifting towards trucking to navigate service-related friction in the rail network. We believe the longer-term outlook is positive — our experience tells us it's a matter of when, not if, new railcar demand will increase, and activity coming out of a trough tends to arise sooner and more robustly than anticipated. In Europe, wagon deliveries are expected to be around 9,000 units for calendar 2026 and the next several years. We're utilizing our lease origination capabilities strategically in this market as well. Our Manufacturing segment executed well in the third quarter. Operating efficiency, cost discipline and solid program and maintenance work helped drive the overall performance. Our lease origination capabilities provide key flexibility to manage new car production and support utilization across our manufacturing footprint. In addition, our in-sourcing investment is delivering broad-based sustained efficiency gains that will further improve earnings power as demand grows. In Leasing & Fleet Management, we saw a significant expansion of our own lease fleet with continued high utilization. We remain focused on growing this platform and doubling our recurring revenue base by 2028 through both our own manufacturing operations and secondary market opportunities. As we look ahead, our focus remains squarely on operational execution, commercial discipline, capital allocation and ongoing enhancement of through-cycle performance. You can expect Greenbrier's solid results across the cycle to continue driving long-term shareholder value. I want to thank our employees for their focus, commitment and execution. I'll turn the call over to Brian to discuss our operations in more detail.

Brian Comstock: Thanks, Lorie, and good afternoon, everyone. Starting with commercial activity. We received orders for 2,200 railcars during the quarter, valued at $340 million. Demand was led by tank cars and covered hoppers with additional activity in gondolas, open-top hoppers and heavy-duty flats. In addition to constructive rail loading trends, it's also worth noting the significant increases in trucking spot rates driven by driver shortages, elevated fuel costs and carrier attrition. While this alone doesn't signal a broad-based freight demand recovery, sustained higher truck rates would improve the relative competitiveness of rail and intermodal service. Turning to backlog. We ended the quarter with 13,800 railcars valued at $2 billion. Our commercial team remains highly engaged with customers across North America, Europe and Brazil, and we are seeing solid activity across several car types. Lease originations represented 60% of total global orders, including 71% of North American awards and 53% of European awards. This highlights the value of our commercial model, flexible production capacity and our ability to respond to customer needs. The Leasing & Fleet Management segment delivered another strong quarter. We expanded the owned lease fleet to 20,600 railcars and utilization remained exceptionally strong at 99%. Renewal rates were healthy, reflecting both the quality of our fleet and the depth of our customer relationships. During the quarter, we continued to pursue disciplined fleet growth through secondary market acquisitions of approximately 4,400 railcars. Moving to our Manufacturing segment. Production rates were aligned with current demand levels, consistent with our proactive management of the business. At these production levels, operating performance and margin progression improved, reflecting the benefits of our in-sourcing strategy and focus on cost competitiveness. Recent capital investments are yielding strong returns even at current production levels. Wheelset shipments exceeded expectations. The maintenance team sustained steady throughput, and we continue to see progress in cycle time execution. We also are taking actions to sharpen the focus and efficiency of our maintenance service network. In Europe, demand remains muted, but we are making progress following recent footprint actions. With the facility consolidation complete, the team is focused on streamlining the production process, reducing inventory and improving quality and production rates. We are also seeing encouraging traction in the European leasing market. In Brazil, Greenbrier-Maxion delivered another quarter of strong operational performance, driven by demand in agriculture and biodiesel sectors. Financial performance exceeded expectations, supported by disciplined cost control, operating efficiency and improved pricing. Our capital markets team continued to support the integrated model through strong monetization activity, expanded investor relationships and secondary market activity. These activities generate profitable margin recognition and fee income, provide liquidity, support lease fleet growth and reinforce the benefits of Greenbrier's integrated platform. I'll turn the call over to Michael to review our financial results.

Michael Donfris: Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon, everyone. Total revenue for the quarter was $577 million. Leasing & Fleet Management revenue was $47 million, up 3% from Q2, primarily reflecting the addition of leased railcars. Manufacturing revenue was $529 million, down about 2% sequentially, primarily due to fewer new railcar deliveries, partially offset by higher maintenance program revenue. Aggregate gross margin was 14.1%, within our long-term target range and improved from Q2. Earnings from operations were $32 million or about 6% of revenue. Our effective tax rate was about 20%, primarily driven by discrete items related to foreign exchange impacts largely from the strengthening of the Mexican peso. Diluted earnings per share were $0.60 and EBITDA was $69 million or about 12% of revenue. Overall, results benefited from stronger margins, favorable foreign exchange, lower net interest expense in Leasing & Fleet Management and a lower effective tax rate. On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $887 million, representing $274 million in cash and $613 million of available borrowing capacity. Operating cash flow for the quarter reflects $227 million of investment, primarily for leased railcars purchased in the secondary market. This investment supports our strategy to grow the lease fleet, increase recurring revenue and generate tax-advantaged cash flows. Over time, we expect to finance a portion of the newly acquired fleet, preserving balance sheet flexibility. We also refinanced our leasing term loan with a new $300 million facility, extending the maturity by 6 years, improving credit terms and adding a delayed draw that provides up to $125 million of additional capacity to support future growth. Greenbrier's Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.34 per share, marking our 49th consecutive quarterly dividend. At quarter end, approximately $65 million remained available under our share repurchase authorization. Turning to guidance. Our fiscal 2026 outlook reflects that some activity is moving into fiscal 2027. For fiscal 2026, we continue to expect total revenue of $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion and are narrowing our expected EPS range to $3 to $3.15 per share. In summary, Greenbrier delivered solid third quarter results, supported by disciplined execution, resilient aggregate gross margins and continued strength in Leasing & Fleet Management. With that, we'll open the call for questions.

Operator: The first question will come from Andrzej Tomczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Andrzej Tomczyk: Just curious if we could start on the tariff front, to get a little more clarity. Our understanding is recent amendments to Section 232 investigations could be imposing a tariff on the full value of tank cars coming out of Mexico into the U.S. Could you speak to your current understanding of that tariff situation? What is Greenbrier's current tank car backlog mix? And are you actually incurring any tariffs there to start?

Lorie Tekorius: Sure, Andrzej. We are not currently entering tank cars or paying a tariff for equipment coming from Mexico into the United States. As you state, there have been some recent pronouncements and determinations with industry-wide implications. We and our industry partners are seeking guidance from CBP on how best to navigate that. It's a situation where there have been some pronouncements made, but it's a change to what has been industry-wide practices. We and our partners — whether they're the Class 1 railroads, the short lines or other manufacturers — are seeking clarification from CBP on how to be compliant with the communications we've received.

Andrzej Tomczyk: If those tariffs were applied to tank cars, is there a risk of retroactive payments? And are there discussions with customers around potential price escalations to pass through those excess costs? And could you share the mix of tank cars in the backlog?

Lorie Tekorius: On the last question first — about 20% of our backlog is tank cars. On the customer pass-through question — yes, we believe any adjustments associated with tariffs would be passed through to our customers. When it comes to retroactive obligations, that's unclear right now, and this is where we would say we are seeking clarification from CBP on what some of the language in their rulings means and how we as an industry need to be compliant.

Brian Comstock: I would just add that while it's 20% today, we're seeing the mix in the market pivot away from tank cars, so that mix is quickly diminishing. And Lorie is right, we have provisions in all of our contracts to pass through tariffs and duties as appropriate.

Lorie Tekorius: And just to highlight — we build tank cars not only in Mexico, with U.S.-sourced steel and other U.S.-sourced components, but we're also building tank cars in Arkansas at our Marmaduke facility.

Andrzej Tomczyk: What is the capability of shifting production to the Arkansas facility?

Lorie Tekorius: Absolutely — we're building tank cars there right now, and we are evaluating how much we could shift. A lot of this comes down to finding and training and retaining a skilled workforce, which is a struggle for many industries in the United States.

Brian Comstock: We are increasing production at our U.S. facilities, and we have the capability to take on quite a bit of that capacity if need be.

Andrzej Tomczyk: With ISM now over 50 for half a year, are you seeing any of that optimism from your customers creep into conversations? Or do you think the positive ISM readings are more a reflection of other areas of the economy? When might that ISM positivity translate into improving new railcar backlogs and deliveries?

Lorie Tekorius: What I continue to hear is a lot of desire from our customers for additional railcars. The interesting point, though, is as the macro environment continues to shift, sometimes it's creating a delay in when they want to execute on an investment in these long-lived assets. We are seeing some temporary shifts over to trucking as shipper customers evaluate how best to navigate for their business. But we really do believe there's quite a bit of pent-up demand for new equipment — we just need the broader economy to settle down a bit so that people can make those long-term investment decisions.

Brian Comstock: Directionally, we've been watching the inquiries in the backlog and while it's been fairly stable over the last few quarters, the pent-up demand is really beginning to rise. You're seeing it on the AI data center infrastructure area, where there's a lot of heavy-duty infrastructure required. When you look at orders-to-production ratios, some of these cars we're taking in have 3 to 4 to 5x the number of labor hours as a tank car or a covered hopper car — it's not a one-for-one trade, it's kind of a 4 or 5:1 trade. We're also seeing significant improvement in the steel side of the industry where a lot of cars are attributing out. And when you look at driver service rules and what's happening in the industry, intermodal is really feeling the pressure for growth as well. The pent-up demand is a real thing — it's not if, it's just when, and we're starting to see signs of that here in this quarter already.

Andrzej Tomczyk: Manufacturing margin this quarter versus last was a nice uplift — was mix a positive this quarter, and how are you thinking about core price versus mix dynamics into year-end?

Brian Comstock: Mix always plays a bit of a role. But as Lorie noted and I touched on briefly, the in-sourcing initiatives we took a couple of years ago are really starting to pay off — not just the in-sourcing investment we made on manufacturing primary parts, but also the focus on labor efficiency and overhead and variable costs. You can look back at Greenbrier's history and we've never had these kinds of margins at this level of production, this low level of production. So we're excited about the opportunity for this market to change and see what we can really do as the market rises back up.

Operator: The next question will come from Harrison Bauer with Susquehanna.

Harrison Bauer: Is some of the regulatory backdrop — both the Section 232 proclamation on tank cars as well as your outstanding coupler and EPA case — eating into customer demand and sentiment, causing customers to wait for clarity before going forward on higher order amounts?

Lorie Tekorius: It's a great question, Harrison. Honestly, that is not the bigger thing holding back our customers from making investment decisions in long-lived assets. It's more the broader macroeconomic situation — they're figuring out how to put existing equipment through a program, run it longer, or if they have pops in demand, shift over to trucking. That's really more where we're seeing the holdup, not what's going on with tariffs or couplers.

Brian Comstock: It's spot on, but also keep in mind there are a lot of Canadian customers that buy assets from us as well, and those tariffs do not apply to cars being moved into Canada. It's really U.S. service at this point. We're continuing to see that demand from oil producers and chemical producers up in the Canadian region. But generally speaking, U.S. customers are not holding back because of uncertainty at this point. We are seeing a shift in mix to more covered hopper cars, black cars, special purpose assets and really higher value backlog for Greenbrier.

Harrison Bauer: On the coupler case — could you give us an update on where you're at with the EPA determination? Any color on the coupler case and what your opportunities are in an adverse ruling to shift coupler procurement to U.S.-sourced?

Lorie Tekorius: Today, we actually filed our administrative appeal, so we have begun that process. The CBP's determination letter has industry-wide implications — this is not just a Greenbrier situation, but it impacts everyone building cars and bringing them into the United States from Canada or Mexico. Their determination letter included a change in practice that, just like with the 232s, we and our industry partners are seeking guidance and clarification on how best to navigate this ruling and how best to be compliant. We do have a very agile industry with a history of working together to figure out across a variety of landscapes how best to navigate, whether it's fluctuations in demand or high prices of steel, whatever might be going on. I have no doubt that as an industry we will find a way to navigate this and continue serving our freight rail customers.

Brian Comstock: While all of these are serious issues, the financial impact of the couplers is fairly small on a per unit basis. When you think about the total number of specialties and steel cost that's in the asset, it's probably less than 1% of the total impact. So from a customer perspective, it doesn't have a significant impact.

Harrison Bauer: On the leasing side — the pretty substantial step-up in your lease fleet quarter-over-quarter. Can you walk through how you're thinking about building for your own fleet versus buying in the secondary market? And how much of the step-up in leasing CapEx is related to producing more versus buying more in the secondary market?

Brian Comstock: It's really kind of a quarter-by-quarter call, to be honest, because we're looking at our concentration, our covenants within our debt financing agreements and how we balance these things materially each quarter. As books come to market, we evaluate whether that fits into our overall strategy from a concentration perspective, a risk perspective and a commercial customer perspective, then we weigh that against what we're building internally. That's going to shift from quarter-to-quarter, but it really is about managing the fleet in a prudent and disciplined way.

Lorie Tekorius: Discipline is the key word — looking at what we're building and what other opportunities we can invest in, whether it's the cars we're building or what someone else is putting out on the market, to improve the quality and diversification of our on-balance-sheet fleet.

Michael Donfris: As we mentioned back a number of years ago on targets, we're investing up to $300 million a year in the lease fleet. That's not really changing how we think about this.

Harrison Bauer: Broad strokes, is there a target fleet size you'd want to get to by end of fiscal 2027? And some thoughts on the secondary market as a seller and where gains might land in the fourth quarter and into next year?

Brian Comstock: We've stated publicly and continue to follow the rule that we're going to invest about $300 million a year. We don't have an ultimate goal of fleet size in mind. But we do want to transform the company to where the recurring revenue from leasing is more substantial or as substantial as manufacturing income. What that means precisely I can't tell you because some of it depends on mix — it's not about overall fleet numbers, it's really about the quality of assets and the earning power of each of those assets.

Lorie Tekorius: We don't want to be spending money just so we can say we grew a fleet if it's not a good quality fleet. That's something we talk a lot about internally — the focus on growing a quality fleet, which I think you can see from the substantial gains on sale in the first half of our fiscal year. My recollection is gains on sale for the rest of the fiscal year are going to be probably fairly modest. Michael?

Michael Donfris: We'll continue to look across the fleet and determine what makes sense as we think about concentration and what's opportunistically available. You'll see it will probably wind down in the fourth quarter. About 2027, it's a little early for us to get out there in terms of what we'll deliver in 2027, but we're going into planning here pretty soon and will be ready to talk about that when the time comes.

Lorie Tekorius: That's why having the liquidity Michael highlighted is so important — we want to be able to take advantage of whatever situation. We don't have a crystal ball into all the other asset owners to know when they might be putting certain fleets on the market. So we want strong liquidity so we can execute as it makes sense for our fleet.

Operator: The next question will come from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Adam Roszkowski: It's Adam Roszkowski on for Ken Hoexter. No change to the revenue outlook, but lowering the midpoint of deliveries, gross margin and EPS. With revenue flat, is that implying higher selling price per car or more maintenance revenue? Maybe help us interpret the mix from a production and leasing standpoint.

Michael Donfris: As we get closer to the fourth quarter, we're getting closer to what's actually happening. As I mentioned in prepared remarks, we are seeing a little bit move into 2027. Also, when we look at how much we were going to ramp up in Q4 and ramp up further, we just haven't had the need to do that, so there's been a little bit on absorption that's impacting us as well. Really a combination of those things. I wouldn't read that much into it — we're just getting much more closer to being able to call the year.

Lorie Tekorius: The other thing I would point out is that while the revenue range didn't change, it's a pretty small-looking range but it's really $100 million.

Michael Donfris: There's still enough there.

Adam Roszkowski: Going to 2027 — how much visibility do you have into your production schedules? You called out an industry forecast to 34,000 deliveries from 25,000 this year, a 36% increase. Is that the right baseline to be thinking about the step-up into next year?

Lorie Tekorius: As Michael said, we're not really prepared to give explicit guidance on 2027. We're very happy with the pipeline we have and do believe customers are going to convert into orders — it's just the timing of when they convert is a little difficult to predict in this current environment. And just one quick reminder — some of the numbers I was giving were calendar year, and there's a little bit of a mismatch since our fiscal year begins on September 1. Brian, what are you thinking about for fiscal '27?

Brian Comstock: When you think about fiscal '27 and the visibility we have going in, I think about it in terms of backlog. Backlog is at 13,800 cars roughly publicly disclosed, and we continue to renew that backlog on a quarter-by-quarter basis. If we're going to produce historically along the same lines we always have, we've got visibility for the first several months into the year.

Lorie Tekorius: Actually, it probably goes further out — it's just different gaps on different lines. And sometimes having those gaps has been very beneficial for us because that means when our customers near the end of their calendar year and spend their dollars, we've seen some interesting activity at times happen towards the end of the calendar year. Not to get too excited.

Adam Roszkowski: You noted some of the trucking market drivers and potential impacts on intermodal type cars. Any thoughts on rail service at current levels and the extent that a deterioration in service or fluidity could spur some upside into fiscal or calendar 2027?

Lorie Tekorius: We've been able to navigate any variety of markets. My overarching message is always about the railroads providing better service to our shipper customers so that we can grow modal share by rail. Let's make the pie bigger — then even if we stay at our current market share, everybody gets a bigger piece. The Class 1s do want to do that — I'm very thankful not to be the CEO of a Class 1 railroad because there's a lot more levers and dials to manage than on my side. Brian, what are you seeing?

Brian Comstock: We're definitely seeing a resurgence of intermodal on rail. It will be interesting to see how railroads can respond from a labor perspective and whether they have power available on the network. You're starting to see a degradation of velocity on rail, which is always good for car builders but not necessarily good for the rail system itself — so we're always a bit conflicted. One proxy we've always used and it's proved to be a fairly close signal — for every mile per hour of degradation in velocity or gain, it's about a 40,000 car demand change network-wide. So thinking about degrading velocity, increased pressure on intermodal to grow and some of these other areas, that could bode well for pent-up demand in our space.

Operator: Showing no questions, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Lorie Tekorius for any closing remarks.

Lorie Tekorius: I just want to say thank you, everyone, for your attention and for your time learning and understanding more about Greenbrier. I wish everyone a safe and happy 4th of July.

Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.