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HMY Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Review management commentary and the analyst Q&A from HMY's Q4 2026 earnings call. Use the transcript to track changes in demand, guidance, operating priorities, and the KPIs behind the company's reported results.

Operator: Good morning. Welcome to Harmony Gold FY 2026 Results Analyst Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand over to the CEO, Beyers Nel. Please go ahead, sir.

Beyers Nel: Good day, and thank you for joining us. I'm joined here today by Boipelo Lekubo, our FD and members of our Group Executive and Investor Relations teams. Financial year 2026 was a defining year in Harmony's evolution into a diversified global gold and copper producer. Through safe, consistent operational delivery, disciplined execution and strategic investment, we achieved gold production guidance for the 11th consecutive financial year and delivered on all key operating guidance metrics. Group gold production of 1.43 million ounces was in line with guidance, while all-in sustaining cost of ZAR 1.19 million per kilogram or USD 2,195 per ounce remained within guidance also. Underground recovered gold grades of 5.83 grams per tonne was also in line with guidance. Following its acquisition, CSA contributed 18,207 tonnes of copper at a recovered grade of 3.75% and a C1 cash cost of USD 2.47 per pound, all within guidance. This performance translated into record financial results with revenue increasing 34% to ZAR 100 billion or USD 5.9 billion. Headline earnings per share increased by 87% to ZAR 43.63 per share. Group adjusted free cash flow increased by 54% to a record ZAR 17 billion or USD 1 billion. This enabled us to declare a record final dividend of ZAR 4.8 billion or ZAR 7.50 per share, lifting the full year dividend to ZAR 8.2 billion or ZAR 12.80 per share at a yield of approximately 3.5%. Importantly, this was achieved while continuing to invest in reserve conversion, life extension and future growth. Up to 2025, we focused on portfolio progression and improvement. Between 2026 and 2030, we will focus on execution and unlocking the value already embedded in our assets. Beyond 2030, we expect a meaningful cash flow inflection as margins strengthen, costs decline and free cash flow expands. We look ahead with confidence. Our gold and copper portfolio provides optionality. Our balance sheet remains strong. Our people provide the capability to deliver. Together, these strengths position Harmony to generate cash today, deliver growth tomorrow and create enduring value through the cycle. Guided by our values and mining with purpose, we remain committed to safe, profitable production and sustainable returns to all our shareholders and stakeholders. Before I take your questions, I would like to remind you that all supporting information relating to our results is available on our website. With that, let's open the line for questions. Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG.

Adrian Hammond: I think I'll be first in this one. The outlook for your portfolio that you've given in one of your slides, at the back of the presentation, dictates a growing profile over the next 10 years. And in the previous year, you had a rapidly declining profile over the next 10 years. And the assets in question are the same if we both exclude Wafi-Golpu in both comparisons. So I'd like to know those, what's changed because that's quite a meaningful metric you've given the market, but you don't actually talk about it. So could you just expand and unpack what is the -- how do you grow production versus decline production in 12 months ago?

Beyers Nel: Sure, Adrian. So that is Slide 27, and you talk about that additional 350,000 ounces or so, which we included in the presentation as blue sky potential, which at this point in time is still conceptual in our thinking, and we have clearly disclosed that, that must be read in line with our safe harbor statement. But what we're trying to highlight there, Adrian, is the inherent potential that sit within our portfolio to convert more resources to reserve given these good prices that we have. So the 350 that is signaled there is a potential mine life extension at of 150, West Wits and Free State reclamation additional projects. That's the tailings reclamation of 100 and then further potential optimized extensions in the South African portfolio making up the other 100. So it is conceptual at this stage. It is early stage and can be viewed as blue sky. But that is -- again, that is the ounces we already own. It's the ounces that we're comfortable with the mining methods and the grades and the way to extract that value, and those are obvious opportunities for us going forward.

Adrian Hammond: Yes. But also, you had a decline last year of some 200,000. So the net impact is about 550.

Beyers Nel: Yes. Of course, what you now also have in the profile is CSA on a full year basis, and you have got Eva Copper in as well, Adrian. And then, of course, the incremental mine life extensions that do come the planning process every year. So if you stack all of that up, that would reconcile perfectly. And on Slide 27, we aim to show that, and there was a significant addition on [indiscernible] as well with that decline extension that is now approved.

Adrian Hammond: Yes, sure. I think also the price assumptions for copper certainly would have also adjusted that number. So I think I see it now. Just on Eva, has there been any upgrade to the reserve? And life of mine?

Beyers Nel: Yes...

Adrian Hammond: I think even in CSA, as you've incorporated CSA into -- I'm not sure if you've published your mineral resources and reserves for this year, but has there been any changes? [indiscernible].

Beyers Nel: I'll refer you to Slide 25. So you'll see there that gold mineral resources have been kept stable at about 107 million ounces. If you look at gold mineral reserves increased to 27.4 million ounces on the addition of Tshepong North that I just mentioned, a little bit at Mponeng, Kusasalethu and then Eva Copper, the gold portion of that. And then on copper, mineral resources increased significantly by 18.5% to 7.4 million tonnes and mineral reserves increased substantially by 71% to 4 million tonnes, and that is Eva Copper and CSA coming into the [ R&R now ].

Adrian Hammond: Okay. I must have missed that in the discussion, but I would say those are quite meaningful.

Beyers Nel: Absolutely, and we'll cover off on them in the presentation. There's a further detail on that in the booklet on Page 13, Adrian, for bedtime reading.

Adrian Hammond: I'll go straight there. I think that that's the important stuff. I'm just surprised you to make a bigger point of it. And then second question was that my [ offer ] just the once -- you had a lot of cash flow impacts this year and total amount of ZAR 10 billion, including all the CSA-related costs, including the contingent payments, the bridge, the acquisition integration and then the rolling of the hedges into -- if we pro forma to spot. So I think also whilst you delivered a full payment in terms of the policy, your cash flow was well below consensus. So I'm wondering if perhaps the analysts, including myself, didn't fully capture some of these one-offs, but worth noting?

Beyers Nel: Thanks, Adrian. Indeed, I mean, many of them are one-off, and we do cover off on those in the presentation as well on Slide 12. That's why we particularly highlight those. And Boipelo will spend a fair amount of time [indiscernible] those are well understood. These are consequences of adding new production and typically mines that are owned by juniors do come with some instruments that add, call it, some complexity. But I mean, we're fairly comfortable that we understand what they are, and we have to work through them and set these mines up for long-term success, which is what Harmony has done on many operations like this, and these won't any different for us.

Adrian Hammond: Just to confirm, Beyers, there's no further one-offs that I've just mentioned? In other words, the integration is complete and the contingent payments relating to CSA are complete. Is that correct?

Beyers Nel: Yes, that's largely correct, Adrian. I mean the integration at an operational level is complete. I will just lean on Boipelo and Herman to maybe just weigh in. But...

Adrian Hammond: Just so that we can prepare for any one-offs again going forward in the next 6 months.

Boipelo Lekubo: Yes. You'll recall, Adrian, there were those two $75 million contingent payments of both were paid. It was October '25 and February '26, respectively, those were paid.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Arnold Van Graan of Nedbank CIB.

Arnold Van Graan: A question...

Beyers Nel: Arnold, We may have lost you there.

Operator: Arnold, you might have accidentally muted yourself. We are not hearing you. [Technical Difficulty] In the interim, we've got Chris Nicholson of RMB. Strangely enough, we have lost Chris as well. [Technical Difficulty] We have been rejoined by Arnold Van Graan of Nedbank CIB.

Arnold Van Graan: Apologies, everyone. Question for Boipelo. Just following up from Adrian. In terms of the contingent payments, are there any payments still due on Moab and Mponeng and which others that are related to sort of gold price and copper price rises? Just trying to get a sense of how we model this. And then for Beyers, on CSA, are you now through the worst? It looks like you had a good recovery in the second half there. But yes, just looking or thinking about the longer-term CapEx profile and expenditure, when we're going to get an update on that? And then on Eva, the issue around that environmental issue with the Lizard, has that sort of been resolved? Or what's the latest on that?

Boipelo Lekubo: Thanks, Arnold. I'll start with the contingent consideration. I'm also going to refer you to Note 17 of our financial statement describes and clearly put out. So there is for Mponeng [indiscernible] Eva. Mponeng is about ZAR 433 million. Eva Copper, ZAR 540 million. And CSA, although we paid those 2 contingent considerations, you'll recall in the net smelter royalty deed that's due to Glencore at 1.5% on all marketable copper -- metal-bearing copper. So that still is reflected, and that's about ZAR 1 billion, ZAR 1.1 billion. So in total, there's still a liability of around ZAR 2.1 billion.

Arnold Van Graan: Okay. Just a quick one on the Eva, is that related to production or it's just the copper price? Trying to [indiscernible], you're still building this mine. Do you pay the contingent payment if the copper price goes up or only when you produce? So I haven't read that yet. So I just want to get a sense.

Boipelo Lekubo: No, no, that's linked to production.

Beyers Nel: Arnold, I'll take CSA first. On Slide 22 of the presentation, we'll do later. I think first and foremost, we're covering off on CSA and the progress we've made there. I think very important for us, number one, is we've recorded the best safety since acquisition at CSA. So the Harmony operating model is -- has landed. We have completed the operational integration, as I said, and that is now fully fledged Harmony mine and the Harmony philosophy around people, safety values are now fully entrenched. I wanted to start off by that first. Secondly, you'll see we're now signaling a clear pathway to the 40,000 tonnes of copper. So there's a growth year-on-year-on-year to get to 40,000 tonnes of copper. And pleasingly, two significant milestones or actually three since we last met. One is we have completed the first vent raise. That has hold successfully, and that is now through. There are a number to go, remembering that the main operational constraint on the mine is the ventilation supply to the deeps, the deeper part of the mine where the quality copper grades are. So we're in a process of doing that. So no, the worst is not yet behind us, but we're making steady progress on that. The second operational constraint is flexibility. Now pleasingly, if you look at June month, record development meters, all-time record development meters was achieved of 560 meters for the month. So that's how you fix a mine, first fix the infrastructure, which was in the previous reporting period, create the necessary mine services and infrastructure and then have the necessary flexibility. So we believe that the investment thesis of CSA is firmly intact. We're very excited about setting that mine up for long-term success. And I do want to also just point your attention to Slide 23, significant exploration intercepts already. And these intercepts sit outside the current mineral resources. So intercepts of up to 12% copper with 12,000 meters drilled in the fourth quarter alone. I mean, we're really going at growing this mine and growing this ore body and setting it up for success, and we are pleased with the progress in that regard. As to Eva, yes, I mean, the endangered species is fine. We do have an update on that. I mean we remain in close engagement with the regulators and the stakeholders, and we are pleasingly continuing to advance the project, but we're doing so, Arnold, in an environmentally responsible manner. Our strategy balances environmental stewardship, the regulatory compliance and value preservation while maintaining our planned path to first copper in 2028. So we are engaged in the regulatory referral process. There's 2 stages there. I mean Stage 1 is about preserving first copper in '28, which from where we stand now has been submitted, and we are awaiting conclusion of that. And referral 2 would be the part that make sure that the replacement ore sources of CSA do come in on time. So from where we sit today, we maintain our guidance in terms of CapEx and first production, and we engaged in a stage execution strategy that continues construction on precleared areas whilst we engage the regulators on further clearing that would open up other work fronts to continue the project.

Arnold Van Graan: I'm going to push you a bit here. Is there the risk of a delay, high, low, medium? Because I get the process, sort of, and -- but I just -- I need some comfort that, look, it's a big problem or it's not such a big problem or we don't know yet?

Beyers Nel: Yes. We maintain our guidance at this stage where we are both in terms of first copper as well as CapEx and as schedule, Arnold. I mean that is what we know now, and that is what we've got in front of us now. We will continue to engage and also update the market as we move. So but what we do know, it doesn't feel like it's going to be either the endangered species or the mine. It's -- we feel it's going to be building the mine with taking care of the environment and the planet and looking after the species and that for us is positive. I was at the mine site not too long ago for a visit there. I mean the amount of progress on the ground is phenomenal. The copper concentrating plant, which is the critical part of the project was precleared before the identification, and that is continuing -- the construction is continuing well and continuing on schedule there. So things are looking good there, Arnold.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] With no further questions in the question queue, I will hand back for closing remarks.

Beyers Nel: Thank you, and thank you for joining the call this morning. We're looking forward to perhaps bumping to some of you at the results presentation later. Thank you very much.

Operator: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes this morning's event. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.