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IFNNY Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Good morning and welcome to the conference call on the results of the third quarter of 2026 of Infineon Technologies. I am Sandra, and I will moderate the session. [Operator Instructions] The conference call will be recorded. You may not record this conference call for personal reasons. I would now like to hand the floor to Mr. Martens.

Florian Martens: Thank you very much, and good morning, dear colleagues. Welcome to our conference call regarding the results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Representing Infineon's Management Board at this conference are Jochen Hanebeck, Chairman of the Management Board; and Dr. Sven Schneider, Chief Financial Officer. As usual, Mr. Hanebeck will first provide an overview of our business performance and the outlook. Afterwards, both members of the Management Board will be available to answer your questions. Our conference call will end promptly at 8:45 a.m. Of course, our press team led by Andre Tauber and I will be happy to remain available to you afterwards. And with that, I'll turn the floor over to Jochen Hanebeck.

Jochen Hanebeck: Thank you very much, Florian. Hello, and a warm welcome from my side as well. Ladies and gentlemen, the market environment continues to brighten. For Infineon, 2 favorable trends are currently converging, a positive cyclical momentum as well as structural growth. The recovery is gaining momentum and the upswing is in full swing. What began initially in individual application areas is now gaining broader traction. We continue to see the strongest momentum in infrastructure related to artificial intelligence. Investment in data centers continue to rise. To make ever-increasing computing power possible in the first place, energy-efficient power supply solutions are needed. Applications for agent-based and physical AI are developing rapidly. Development is also accelerating in industrial applications, particularly in the energy infrastructure sector. In the automotive sector as well, we are seeing an increase in customer orders. In this environment, our operational focus is on capitalizing the current upswing. At the same time, we are making targeted investments in future growth opportunities. A good example for this is our smart power fab in Dresden, which opened in early July. The clean room space they are -- available there enables us to ramp up the world's largest factory for state-of-the-art power semiconductors and analog/mixed-signal technologies and at exactly the right time. In addition, we completed the acquisition of ams OSRAM's sensor portfolio in a very short time as planned. More on that later. Let's first take a look at the performance in Q3 of fiscal 2026. The third quarter was the first in 2.5 years to generate a revenue of over EUR 4 billion. At EUR 4.172 billion, we slightly exceeded expectations even when taking into account a minor positive currency effect. For Infineon, this is the highest quarterly revenue ever achieved so far. Compared to the previous quarter, revenue rose by 9%. And compared to the same quarter last year, this represents an increase of nearly 13%. Segment earnings reached EUR 797 million. This corresponds to a segment earnings margin of 19.1%, well within the upper range of the forecast, up from 17.1% in the previous quarter. This development is primarily attributable to a positive volume effect and positive product mix effects. Our order backlog rose noticeably quarter-over-quarter and stood at nearly EUR 30 billion as of the end of June. This is a clear sign that the momentum of the recovery is strengthening. Free cash flow as well is improving significantly in Q3 to EUR 599 million compared to a negative EUR 63 million in the previous quarter, driven primarily by the higher operating profit. Now let's turn to the results of our business units. As announced in our last quarterly conference call, we have been operating under a new 3-part organizational structure comprising the Automotive, Power Systems and Edge Systems business units since July 1. However, for the quarter that ended in June, we are once again reporting results today based on the previous 4 divisions. First, Automotive. The business unit increased revenue by 6% in Q3 to EUR 1.932 billion. Microcontrollers and smart power components were key growth drivers as were our Ethernet products. All of these are central building blocks of software-defined vehicles. Segment earnings rose to EUR 356 million. The segment earnings margin stood at 18.4%, up from 18.1% in the previous quarter. As a reminder, the realignment of our businesses with high-voltage power semiconductors for the electric powertrain, which we explained in our last quarterly conference call, is expected to have a negative impact on ATV's segment profit margin in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range this fiscal year. We are already factoring this into our forecast. We continue to see strong order intake in the automotive sector despite an overall subdued automotive market. In the latest forecast for 2026, the market research firm Mobility Global, a spin-off from S&P Global expects approximately 91 million new vehicles to be produced. This figure is now largely in line with our own forecast at the beginning of the fiscal year. Long-term structural trends in the automotive sector remain intact and continue to drive semiconductor growth per vehicle. Rising gas prices are beginning to boost demand for electric vehicles in Europe, India and Southeast Asia. At the same time, the adoption of software-defined vehicles continues to gain momentum worldwide. Now in addition to these structural growth drivers, supply shortages of automotive qualified semiconductors in the Chinese market are creating additional opportunities for us. Furthermore, the ongoing restocking of inventories is contributing to a short-term recovery in demand. In the past quarter, we secured a significant design win for a zone controller architecture with a software company affiliated with a leading global automaker. The solution combines our latest generation AURIX microcontrollers and our semiconductors for intelligent power system management. This demonstrates the breadth of our system portfolio, which encompasses computing, connectivity and intelligent power management. We are also seeing positive momentum in design wins in China. Xiaomi is going to use our semiconductors in a cockpit and a driver assistance platform. This platform integrates 3 different microcontroller families from Infineon. Additionally, another leading Chinese automaker will use our silicon carbide chips in the inverters of its vehicles. Finally, we're making it much easier for our customers to evaluate our automotive microcontrollers. Together with Amazon Web Services, we've launched a cloud-based virtual platform for this purpose. This platform enables hardware-independent evaluation, reduces evaluation cycles from several weeks to mere minutes and significantly lowers evaluation costs per user. That's because it supports hundreds of users worldwide simultaneously. In addition, the platform already incorporates Infineon's future RISC-V-based architecture. The new platform is an excellent example of how we are further accelerating innovation for software-defined vehicles. Now let's turn to Green Industrial Power. Quarter-over-quarter, revenue rose by 11% to EUR 447 million. This made the June quarter the second in a row to post a double-digit growth rate. All application areas performed well, particularly energy infrastructure and climate control systems, of course. Now despite the higher revenue, GIP's segment earnings declined slightly to EUR 44 million. This corresponds to a segment earnings margin of 9.8%, down from 11.7% in the previous quarter. Temporary operational and inventory-related effects were the reasons for the decline. Therefore, one cannot draw conclusions about the underlying profitability of the business from this. The positive development of the margin in the current quarter will also demonstrate this. In the energy infrastructure sector, we are seeing strong structural momentum. Investments in the expansion and modernization of power grids continue to pick up, driving demand for energy storage systems, power transmission and distribution as well as semiconductor components for high-voltage applications. Now the massive construction of AI data centers is driving demand for semiconductors used in their uninterruptible power supplies and cooling systems. Semiconductors are increasingly well suited to replace electromechanical components. Semiconductor circuit breakers, also known as solid-state circuit breakers, protect electrical circuits from damage caused by excessive current flow, such as that resulting from short circuits or overloads. They enable ultrafast tripping in the microsecond range up to 1,000x faster than conventional systems. Now this capability is indispensable for direct current grid and leads to significantly improved system availability in AI data centers or industrial power production facilities. As part of our collaboration with Siemens, we supply silicon carbide power modules for the use of the company's semiconductor circuit breakers. This enables us to increase the efficiency, power density and reliability of the protection solutions. Let's now turn to the Power & Sensor Systems segment. Driven by continued strong demand for our power supply solutions for AI data centers, PSS reported revenue of EUR 1.442 billion in Q3. This represents a significant increase of 14% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, revenue rose by as much as 34%. PSS' profitability trend also paints a positive picture. Segment earnings rose to EUR 359 million. The segment earnings margin reached 24.9%, up from 20.4% in the previous quarter. The strong performance is driven by our leading position in power supply solutions for AI data centers. This leadership is also recognized by independent market researchers. In a recent report on power semiconductors for AI data centers, Gartner identifies Infineon as "the company to beat". For AI data center operators looking to scale AI, our comprehensive product portfolio, system expertise and manufacturing capabilities are crucial. Infineon covers the entire power supply chain from the power grid to the AI processor. We integrate all key semiconductor materials, silicon, silicon carbide and gallium nitride, and we manufacture all relevant technologies in-house at highly competitive prices. Demand for our AI power supply solutions continues to exceed available supply. This part of our business is currently operating on a first-come, first-served basis. A ramp-up of manufacturing operations, along with the reallocation of capacity from other areas gives us the opportunity to generate more than EUR 1.6 billion in revenue in this segment during the current fiscal year. This exceeds our previous forecast of EUR 1.5 billion. Added to this is our business with power supply solutions for traditional data centers, that is those not geared toward training and developing AI, which amounts to approximately EUR 500 million annually. Infineon is, therefore, clearly the market leader in this particular area. We are represented on nearly all platforms across all relevant industry players. The pace of further growth in the coming years, of course, will depend on how quickly we can ramp up and bring additional manufacturing capacity online. Our new smart power fab in Dresden as well as additional available clean room capacity at our other major front-end sites in Austria and Malaysia put us in a unique position. To strategically secure access to power supply solutions, several leading customers in the AI data centers have entered into multiyear capacity reservation agreements with us or are currently in negotiations to do so. These agreements represent a cumulative revenue volume in the high single-digit billion euro range and also include certain advance payments. We are thus further strengthening our customer relationships and are sharing investment risks. We will revise upward our revenue forecast of more than EUR 2.5 billion from the power supply solutions for data centers for fiscal year 2027 as part of our quarterly earnings announcement in November. We expect this revision to be significant. And we're already seeing the next waves of AI growth in addition to even more powerful supply architectures for using the latest AI models, which includes, in particular, the development of agent-based and physical AI. The growing demands for inference and task coordination in agent-based AI are providing us with tremendous momentum. Our undisputed leadership in power solutions for CPUs, combined with a highly differentiated and optimally tailored product portfolio will enable us to achieve further significant growth as early as the coming fiscal year. Accordingly, the aforementioned adjustment to our revenue forecast for 2027 encompasses our power supply solutions for all types of data centers. Now beyond data centers, our solutions bring physical AI to life. They enable humanoid robots and autonomous servers to perceive their environment, think and act independently, all while remaining safe and secure. As robots and autonomous systems increasingly move beyond controlled industrial environments to operate in factories, logistics centers and public spaces, safety and security are becoming ever increasingly important. Infineon is integrating its OPTIGA TPM hardware security module into NVIDIA's Jetson Thor computing platforms for robotics and autonomous systems. The module secures cryptographic keys directly at the chip level, thereby protecting the system integrity against tampering and unauthorized access. Infineon possesses expertise in microcontrollers, power supply solutions, sensor technology, connectivity, functional safety and security across its 3 divisions. This makes us a strong partner in the field of physical AI across the entire spectrum of platforms. Now this brings me to the Connected Secure Systems business unit. With revenue of EUR 350 million, third quarter revenue was approximately 10% higher than in the previous quarter. All application areas contributed to this positive development, particularly authentication and identification solutions. Segment earnings rose to EUR 34 million. The segment earnings margin stood at 9.7%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter. We're seeing steadily increasing adoption of Edge AI solutions, both for industrial and consumer applications. With the new Edge Systems business unit comprising of the former CSS, the sensor and RF portfolio and the USB connectivity portfolio from PSS, we can now take full advantage of the growing opportunities in this particular area. Edge Systems focuses on the interaction of sensors, microcontrollers, software connectivity and security in order to enable integrated edge systems solutions. The acquisition of ams OSRAM's non-optical analog mixed signal sensor portfolio also contributed significantly to this particular upswing. I am pleased to report that we successfully completed this acquisition in early July, just about 5 months after the announcement was made. With this transaction, we are strengthening our leading position in the field of sensors for industrial and automotive applications through a complementary portfolio. And we are expanding our product range of sensors for medical applications. The acquired business currently generates annualized revenue of approximately EUR 230 million. The transaction will boost adjusted earnings per share immediately upon closing. And future synergies will enable us to generate significant additional value. The acquired portfolio is a strategically excellent fit for our new Edge Systems division. Ladies and gentlemen, I would now like to turn to the outlook. The market environment is becoming increasingly favorable for Infineon. The upswing is accelerating and the recovery is gaining momentum. Market inventories have been reduced and end customer demand is emerging as a significant growth driver. Higher orders from our customers are leading to a growing order backlog and improving our outlook for the future. Business indicators such as cancellation rates or customers' willingness to pay surcharges for expedited deliveries reflect the strength of demand. Delivery times are increasing and independent surveys suggest that customers expect them to lengthen further in the coming months. This is a typical pattern in the early phase of the semiconductor cycle when supply becomes tighter. Now of course, the dynamics vary by application area. Demand is currently strongest in AI power supplies and energy infrastructure, followed by the automotive sector, while demand for consumer applications remains weaker. Overall, however, our outlook is characterized by a high degree of confidence, provided that the geopolitical environment does not deteriorate further. For the fourth quarter of 2026 fiscal year, we are adjusting our assumed USD to euro exchange rate to EUR 1.15, down from EUR 1.17. We expected revenue of approximately EUR 4.7 billion on a quarter-over-quarter basis. This represents a growth of nearly 13%, significantly higher than the typical seasonal growth rate for the fourth quarter. The sensor business acquired from ams OSRAM is expected to contribute a mid-double-digit million euro amount to the revenue. We expect the segment profit margin to be at around 23%, up from just over 19% previously. In addition to a positive volume effect, we expect rising prices in certain areas, particularly in AI and related applications to further support our profitability. This effect is offset by further increases in manufacturing costs. Now for fiscal 2026, we are now expecting revenue of approximately EUR 16.3 billion. This represents year-on-year growth of about 11%. In 2025, Infineon generated revenue of approximately EUR 14.7 billion. We confirm our expectations for the segment operating margin. We continue to anticipate a figure of around 20%. This figure takes into account idle capacity cost of approximately EUR 650 million. Our forecast does not account for potential indirect macroeconomic effects resulting from a further escalation of the Middle East conflict or other ongoing geopolitical tensions. Now regarding our investments. In the current fiscal year, we continue to plan investments totaling approximately EUR 2.7 billion. The focus here is on the completion and production preparation of our Smart Power Fab in Dresden as well as further manufacturing investments geared toward the rapidly growing customer demand for our power supply units for AI data centers. Based on our favorable business outlook, we are raising our forecast for adjusted free cash flow. We now expect it to be approximately EUR 1.85 billion, up from the previous forecast of EUR 1.65 billion. This corresponds to about 11% of the consolidated group revenue. We are revising our forecast for reported free cash flow from approximately EUR 1.25 billion to approximately EUR 900 million. This is also representing an implied improvement as we're now factoring in for the very first time, the purchase price of approximately EUR 570 million for the acquisition of the sensor portfolio from ams OSRAM. The impact of this is partially offset by improved underlying cash flow. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes my remarks. And now together with Sven Schneider, I am happy to answer the questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Joachim Hofer from Handelsblatt.

Joachim Hofer: I have a knock-on question with respect to the customer agreements that you have reached. Could you explain to me once again why from your point of view, the customers are doing this? What their benefits are for your buyers and customers? What are the advantages for you? How reliable are such agreements? And wherein lies the risk of such arrangements?

Jochen Hanebeck: Good morning, Mr. Hofer. Thank you very much for your questions. In the final analysis, what motivates the customers? Well, customers throughout the entire chain have great commitments in building capacities for data centers, and therefore, they have to hedge their bets to make sure that all of the pieces fit together. And here, in the Power Up segment, it is becoming apparent that there is not enough supply or won't be enough supply. So we have a keen interest expressed from a number of customers in entering into multiyear supply agreements with us. These supply agreements, first and foremost, revolve around volumes, and they also include certain clauses enabling the customer to actually uphold the agreement. Prices are independent of this, however. This means that they are regularly reviewed and redetermined. The customers who are interested in these types of arrangements are customers all along the value-added chain around processors, but also around power supply solutions from the grid through to the processor. So we're talking here about a global issue. We have customers from Asia, but also from the United States who are highly interested in these types of agreements.

Joachim Hofer: Is there any disadvantage to this for Infineon, Mr. Hanebeck -- or do you have to make some concessions?

Jochen Hanebeck: No. We don't have to make concessions. This is a supply limitation. This means that for us, this is only advantageous because it enables us to plan better and our customers are more tightly bound to Infineon. Visibility increases as well. We receive advance payments to a certain degree. And therefore, from where we stand, it's a win-win situation. And we mustn't forget that this system isn't very rigid. It's not a noncancelable, nonrefundable order situation. It is rather a regime that has a certain degree of flexibility. And of course, there are also penalties if the customers do not adhere to the purchase obligations.

Operator: The next question comes from Hakan Ersen from Thomson Reuters.

Hakan Ersen: I have 2 questions. In your forecast, for power semiconductors for AI data centers, we have a slightly elevated figure with respect to the following year, what do you expect there? My second question is, you have exceeded market expectations with respect to the segment result. However, you slightly underperformed. What is the reason for this?

Jochen Hanebeck: Yes, Mr. Hanebeck here. I'll take the first question. Mr. Schneider will take the second one. Well, we guided the market for this year to the tune of EUR 1.5 billion only for AI data centers. And we've said that the EUR 500 million for the classical data centers can be added on top of that. But let's stick with the AI data centers for now. The EUR 1.5 billion can probably be increased to more than EUR 1.6 billion, and this is because our operations have done a good job and have overperformed a little bit. We're in the allocation, as we said before. We have more customer demand than we can actually meet with supply. For the coming year, we have said that this comparable figure of 1.5 [ EUR 1.5 billion ] will be raised to 2.5 [ EUR 2.5 billion ]. This figure will be increased substantially, therefore, but it won't be increased until November. The new figure, however, will also include the EUR 500 million in growth for the classical data centers. And this is because due to the agent-based AI, you cannot really separate the one from the other anymore. So the figure may be larger than 2.5, but we will give you the definitive figures and facts for our entire financial planning in November. And I would like to hand over to Sven Schneider for the second question.

Sven Schneider: Good morning, Mr. Hakan. First of all, I would like to put everything into perspective. We have an increase from 19 to 23, so 400 basis points from one quarter to the next. That's quite good. Now you were asking perhaps why this hasn't been a bigger increase. Well, first of all, when we plan, we take a classical Infineon approach. We never want to overpromise. Whatever we announced to you in terms of forecasts, we intend to uphold. That's the first point. Second point, there are a number of different issues that play a role. At the PS Power & Systems side, you can see quite wonderfully how strongly the growing AI business is doing quarter-over-quarter, we are talking about 500 basis points in increase. In automotive, it's similar. We have a positive trend in this area, but you may remember that we have a special issue here, the high-voltage business for inverters, which are silicon-based. We have a margin headwind here of about 100 basis points, which will come to bear in this quarter as well. And of course, there was a second smaller round of price increases, which only has a partial effect, however, but we see higher cost increases, freight costs, logistics costs, precious metals, energy, foundry prices, all of this has to be factored in. And we also have to consider that this year, stockpiles should be reduced a little bit so that the factories are not loaded as much as we may have done before. So all of this is being factored in, and therefore, we can give you some confidence that we are faring very well.

Operator: The next question comes from Joachim Herr from Börsen-Zeitung.

Joachim Herr: Mr. Hanebeck, I have another knock-on question. Expected revenue for the AI data centers, if you include the classical ones, this year, you reached EUR 2.1 billion. Next year, EUR 2.5 billion, which you will be increasing substantially. So that's a comparable figure, EUR 2.1 billion to EUR 2.5 billion. And Mr. Schneider, 6 weeks ago, the share price was below EUR 80. You said that it is now reasonable also looking at the growth prospects. Now the share price has decreased substantially. It's about 30% lower. The first question I have is whether it is no longer appropriate from your point of view. Second question I have for you is that, well, there was some uncertainty on the market as to whether AI investments will actually be worthwhile. Do you see this feedback from your investors as well? And the third question is, what do you tell your investors? How do you try to calm the situation?

Jochen Hanebeck: Mr. Herr, this is Mr. Hanebeck here. I will answer your first question. Your math is right, 1.6 plus 0.5 equals 2.1. This includes all data centers, be they AI data centers or classical data centers that are also used for Agentic AI. So this effect of 2.5 would be turned into a 3. The actual figure will be communicated to you in November, however.

Sven Schneider: Mr. Herr, good morning. This is Mr. Schneider. I will answer your questions regarding the share price. First of all, it may be helpful to look in your rearview mirror. Infineon looks back on a long period where the share price moved between EUR 30 and EUR 45 roughly. You're right, we were very happy to see that it reached a peak at the end of the past quarter of over EUR 80. However, I believe that a share price of EUR 60 to EUR 65, which we have right now in view of the overall geopolitical situation and also considering sectoral developments is not a bad share price at all. With respect to AI investments, I believe Mr. Hanebeck already presented this to you quite wonderfully with the capacity agreements, we are in a growth trend. We're not talking about short-lived quarterly topics. We believe that this will be a very positive long-term effect from grid to core over the entire chain. We are set up in a diversified manner with a number of different customers. We don't depend on any single customer. A number of the customers are in the process of reserving substantial capacity with us for the years ahead. So all of this together clearly confirms our share price and our trajectory. And our share price, therefore, is not a short-term issue. We're looking at the entire chain very closely. We look at customers and how our profitability and their profitability develops, but this will not deter us from believing in the biggest growth driver of our corporate history.

Operator: The next question comes from Christina Kyriasoglou of Bloomberg.

Christina Kyriasoglou: This is Christina Kyriasoglou from Bloomberg. I would like to ask you if you could tell me something about the developments that you're observing on the Chinese market and the extent to which demand is affected at Infineon.

Jochen Hanebeck: May I ask you whether you're referring to the automotive market or another market?

Christina Kyriasoglou: Well, there have been reports on potential improvements of your own chip manufacturing capacities.

Jochen Hanebeck: Okay. So you're talking across the board, not just about auto.

Christina Kyriasoglou: Yes, that's correct.

Jochen Hanebeck: Well, this is Mr. Hanebeck. We have repeatedly reported that we have been witnessing increasing competition on the Chinese market. China has made substantial investments in technologies and capacities in our field of business amongst other areas. As before, we received the feedback in the power segment, for instance, that our newest technologies have an edge. Specifically, as I mentioned earlier on, in the automotive market with automotive qualified products in certain areas, MOSFETs and analog products, we see higher demand because various Chinese suppliers, which are based on a foundry model, in other words, don't have their own factories are unable to supply. Our microcontrollers for automotive applications are highly sought after within the portfolio, but we remain paranoid. China has caught up quite a lot in this area. And we see some segments, as I mentioned last time around in the high voltage area in the car applications, prices due to Chinese competition, especially in the IGBT area, have declined to such an extent that this has ceased to be interesting to us. We are reallocating these capacities, however, to AI. So the situation is very dynamic, and this motivates us to be more agile and to bring innovations to market faster than before.

Operator: [Operator Instructions]

Jochen Hanebeck: Ladies and gentlemen, in conclusion, I'd like to summarize, the upswing is clearly gaining momentum and breadth across multiple end markets. The structural growth drivers are proving to be very strong. The momentum in AI remains unbroken. We will more than double our revenue from power supply solutions for AI data centers this fiscal year to over EUR 1.6 billion. In addition, we are generating EUR 500 million in revenue from power supplies for traditional data centers. We will drive growth in this area and expect to significantly raise our revenue forecast for fiscal 2027 in our quarterly update in November. A substantial portion of our future revenue will be covered by customer agreements for capacity reservations. The situation in the automotive sector is also continuing to improve, driven by structural growth, market share gains and inventory restocking. Against this backdrop, Infineon closed the third quarter of the fiscal year fully in line with its forecast. Based on a positive business outlook, we expect a fourth quarter that outperforms seasonal norms, resulting in a strong finish to our fiscal 2026 and in consequence, a solid starting point for 2027. Thank you very much for your interest, and goodbye. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]