Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Taylor. You may begin.

Andy Taylor: Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our earnings release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website. On the call this morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer; and Davie Wold, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.

Devin Stockfish: Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported third quarter GAAP earnings of $61 million or $0.08 per diluted share on net sales of $1.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $248 million, a 14% increase compared to the third quarter of 2025. I'd like to start by thanking our teams for their continued focus and resilience against an increasingly challenging market backdrop. Elevated interest rates continue to weigh on consumers and housing activity, while rising diesel and transportation costs have added to the broader inflationary environment. Notwithstanding recent headwinds, we remain well positioned given the strength of our portfolio and balance sheet, our deeply ingrained OpEx culture and the flexibility of our capital allocation framework. And as we outlined at our Investor Day last December, we're advancing growth initiatives across our integrated portfolio to increase the value and resilience of our company over time. Our objective is to increase cash generation capabilities, reduce volatility across market cycles and improve our competitive position. The current environment only reinforces the importance of this strategy, and we've made meaningful progress on several growth initiatives in recent months. Construction of our Monticello EWP facility is progressing well with start-up expected in mid-2027. In biocarbon, we broke ground on our first facility in McComb, Mississippi, and are making good progress on site selection for additional locations across our portfolio. Construction has also commenced on 2 additional solar sites, bringing our portfolio to 2 operational sites and 5 under construction. Turning to forest carbon. We've monetized approximately 340,000 credits year-to-date, putting us on pace for our highest annual sales volume since the program's inception. And finally, we recently signed an agreement to explore geothermal energy opportunities across 145,000 acres in Oregon and Washington. We are making meaningful progress, and I'm incredibly proud of what our teams have achieved as we've continued to execute against our growth strategy. Before moving on to our business results, I'll comment briefly on a recent action to optimize our timberlands portfolio. As we reported yesterday, we entered into an agreement to divest approximately 81,000 acres of noncore timberlands in Arkansas for $146 million. The transaction is expected to close by year-end and further demonstrates our ongoing commitment to active portfolio management and our disciplined approach to enhancing the quality and value of our timberlands over time. As always, we will continue to evaluate strategic opportunities to optimize the return profile of our timberlands while also creating additional flexibility for broader capital allocation and growth priorities. More broadly, we remain focused on allocating capital in a manner that creates the most long-term value for our shareholders. Consistent with this approach and given where our shares are currently trading, we view share repurchase as a particularly attractive opportunity right now and expect to increase repurchase activity in the fourth quarter. Turning now to our third quarter business results. I'll start with Timberlands on Pages 6 through 9 of our earnings slides. Timberlands contributed $67 million to third quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $133 million, an 8% increase compared to the second quarter, largely driven by higher sales volumes in the South. In the West, adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, which was comparable to the prior quarter. Starting with the Western domestic market, log demand was healthy at the outset of the third quarter as mills responded to a stronger lumber market and maintained elevated log inventories during wildfire season. As the quarter progressed, the typical seasonal increases in logging activity by nonindustrial landowners, combined with a lighter-than-expected fire season in Western Washington and Oregon, added log supply to the system. At the same time, Western fiber markets became more challenging due to operational disruptions at several pulp and paper mills. For our operations, fee harvest volumes were comparable to the second quarter, while domestic sales volumes were moderately lower, largely due to a decrease in fiber log sales. Our average domestic sales realizations increased slightly, driven by a higher mix of grade logs. Forestry and road costs were comparable to the prior quarter and per unit log and haul costs decreased, primarily due to a lower mix of export volumes, which carry higher associated costs. This was partially offset by higher fuel costs. Moving to our Western export business. Log markets in Japan were relatively stable in the third quarter, and our customers remain well positioned relative to imported European lumber, which continues to face challenges in the Japanese market. Demand and pricing for our logs were comparable to the second quarter. Our sales volumes were lower due to the timing of vessels. Turning briefly to China. During the quarter, we delivered one vessel to strategic customers in the region, and our average sales realizations were comparable to the prior quarter. Also on a positive note, as a result of the recent meetings between President Trump and President Xi, we understand that the 10% tariff on logs exported into China will be removed relatively soon. Turning to the South. Adjusted EBITDA for Southern Timberlands was $65 million, a 12% increase compared to the second quarter. Southern log markets were relatively balanced in the third quarter as improved weather conditions supported greater log availability alongside steady mill demand. Sawmills continued to replenish inventories after weather-related supply constraints in the second quarter, while fiber mill activity increased following spring outages. Given favorable weather conditions, our fee harvest and sales volumes increased significantly compared to the second quarter. That said, our average sales realizations decreased slightly, reflecting a higher mix of fiber logs from increased thinning activity. Despite higher fuel costs, our per unit log and haul costs decreased slightly, benefiting from operating efficiencies associated with higher volumes. And forestry and road costs were moderately higher, reflecting typical seasonal activity. In the North, adjusted EBITDA increased slightly, largely due to higher sales volumes resulting from the seasonal increase in harvest activity that's typical in the third quarter. Turning now to our Strategic Land Solutions business on Pages 10 and 11. In the third quarter, Strategic Land Solutions contributed $67 million to earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $86 million, a $43 million decrease compared to the second quarter, largely driven by the timing and mix of real estate sales. It's worth noting that real estate results are typically more heavily weighted towards the first half of the year. That being said, real estate markets have remained steady year-to-date, and we continue to capitalize on steady demand and pricing for real estate properties with significant premiums to timber value. We've also seen steady demand for our Climate Solutions offerings in 2026. Through the third quarter, we generated $140 million of adjusted EBITDA from this business, already exceeding our full year results in 2025. We're encouraged by the momentum in this business and the opportunities that we see to drive continued growth in the years ahead. Now moving to Wood Products on Pages 12 through 14. Wood Products contributed $32 million to third quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $91 million, a $38 million decrease compared to the second quarter. This was largely driven by lower pricing across most products and higher costs, including increased transportation costs from record-high diesel prices. It's worth noting that we continue to pass along these higher transportation costs in our delivered realizations wherever possible. Starting with lumber. The framing lumber composite entered the third quarter on an upward trajectory, reaching a multiyear high in late July. Pricing was supported by a seasonal improvement in building activity, along with tighter supply following previously enacted mill curtailments and closures as well as lower European imports. Elevated transportation costs and trucking availability constraints have also provided support to lumber pricing this year. As the quarter progressed, however, composite pricing steadily declined as housing activity softened amid higher interest rates and typical late summer seasonality. For our lumber business, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $69 million, a 5% decrease from the prior quarter, primarily due to slightly higher unit manufacturing and log costs. Production and sales volumes increased as transportation-related operating challenges from second quarter eased. Our average delivered sales realizations were slightly higher compared to the prior quarter. Now turning to the OSB market. Demand was relatively stable in the third quarter with very little movement in composite pricing for much of the period. Pricing moved higher in September, albeit from a low base as buyers responded to newly announced mill curtailments and pricing has since stabilized over the last couple of weeks. For our OSB business, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $18 million, a $12 million decrease compared to the prior quarter. This was largely driven by slightly lower production and sales volumes and higher unit manufacturing costs due to more extensive planned annual maintenance relative to the second quarter. Resin costs were also higher, while fiber costs were comparable. Our average sales realizations decreased by 2%, which was slightly unfavorable to the OSB composite. This is largely due to the length of our order files, which results in a lag effect for OSB realizations. Moving to Engineered Wood Products. Adjusted EBITDA was $41 million, a $13 million decrease compared to the second quarter, primarily driven by lower average sales realizations and higher freight costs. A key driver impacting sales realizations in the quarter was an unfavorable mix shift in solid section products. In addition, previously announced price increases came through at a slower pace than initially anticipated given the more challenging macro environment and softer homebuilding activity. That said, as we enter the fourth quarter, we're seeing incremental benefit from these recent price increases across solid section and I-joist products. And we currently expect our average sales realizations for EWP to be slightly higher sequentially. Our sales volumes increased slightly for most products compared to the second quarter and raw material and unit manufacturing costs were slightly higher. In distribution, adjusted EBITDA decreased by $4 million compared to the second quarter. Results reflect lower sales volumes and margins as we reduced inventory of certain siding and decking products following recent changes in supplier and distributor relationships. We anticipate some continued impact from this transition in the fourth quarter as we work through remaining inventory. Looking further out, we've aligned with leading brands to ensure we maintain an attractive offering of siding and decking products across our distribution network. With that, I'll turn the call over to Davie to discuss some financial items and our fourth quarter outlook.

David Wold: Thanks, Devin, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on Page 16. In the third quarter, we generated $193 million of cash from operations. We ended the quarter with approximately $350 million of cash and total debt of $5.4 billion. And as a reminder, we have no remaining debt maturities until late 2027. We returned $151 million to shareholders through the payment of our quarterly base dividend and approximately $10 million through share repurchase activity in the third quarter. As Devin mentioned, we view share repurchase as a particularly attractive opportunity today and expect to increase our activity in the fourth quarter. Capital expenditures were $137 million in the third quarter, including $54 million related to the construction of our EWP facility in Arkansas. As Devin mentioned, construction is progressing well, and we remain on track for start-up in mid-2027. For full year 2026, we now expect investments for Monticello to be approximately $250 million, which is modestly lower than our initial estimate due to normal variability in the timing of cash outlay. And as a reminder, CapEx associated with this project will be excluded for purposes of calculating Adjusted FAD as used in our cash return framework. Excluding the outlay for Monticello, we have also lowered guidance for our typical CapEx program to approximately $375 million in 2026. It's worth noting that we're always evaluating our capital allocation levers and have the flexibility within our framework to make adjustments in response to market conditions, alternative uses of cash and to fund growth opportunities. Third quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on Page 15. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased by $9 million compared to the second quarter, primarily attributable to changes in intersegment profit elimination and LIFO. Looking forward, key outlook items for the fourth quarter are presented on Page 18 and updates to full year outlook items are presented on Page 19. In our Timberlands business, we expect fourth quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to the third quarter of 2026. Turning to our Western Timberlands operations. Log supply typically decreases into the winter months, which should provide some support for log pricing as the quarter progresses. We also expect some improvement in the fiber log market. That said, mills continue to navigate a softening lumber market. Given these dynamics, we anticipate slightly lower average domestic sales realizations compared to the third quarter. We expect comparable per unit log and haul costs along with seasonally lower forestry and road costs. Our fee harvest volumes are expected to be slightly lower given fewer working days in the fourth quarter. Moving to the Western export program. In Japan, we anticipate steady demand from our customers and relatively stable pricing for our logs in the fourth quarter. That said, we expect higher sales volumes compared to the third quarter due to the timing of vessels. Turning to China. Log markets remain relatively stable, and we're seeing some improvement in demand from our strategic customers, partially supported by the favorable exchange rate. As a result, we expect to deliver 3 vessels to China in the fourth quarter, up from 1 vessel per quarter since reestablishing our China export program in late 2025. We anticipate pricing for our logs will be comparable to the third quarter with potential upside if tariffs are lifted before year-end. Turning to the South. We expect sawlog demand to improve in the fourth quarter as mills rebuild lean inventories ahead of the winter months. In addition, we expect increased fiber log consumption as mills achieve better operating performance alongside steady end market demand. At the same time, we expect a seasonal decrease in regional log supply. As a result, we anticipate slightly higher average sales realizations compared to the third quarter. Our fee harvest volumes are expected to be moderately lower due to wet weather conditions and fewer working days, both of which are typical in the fourth quarter. Per unit log and haul costs are expected to increase slightly, while forestry and road costs are expected to be comparable. In the North, we expect our fee harvest volumes to be moderately higher than the third quarter with comparable sales realizations. Moving to our Strategic Land Solutions segment. Real estate markets have remained solid year-to-date, and we continue to anticipate a consistent flow of transactions with significant premiums to timber value. Additionally, we're delivering steady growth from our Climate Solutions and Natural Resources businesses in 2026. As a reminder, last quarter, we increased our segment guidance for full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to approximately $450 million, representing nearly 10% growth compared to 2025. For the fourth quarter, we expect SLS adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $45 million lower and earnings to be approximately $35 million lower than the third quarter of 2026, primarily due to the timing and mix of real estate sales. This reflects the typical seasonality of our real estate business with results generally more heavily weighted toward the first half of the year. For our Wood Products segment, we expect fourth quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be moderately lower than the third quarter of 2026, excluding the effect of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and OSB. We anticipate softer demand for wood products in the fourth quarter given the more challenging macro environment and typical seasonal moderation of housing and R&R activity into the winter months. Looking ahead, even without a meaningful improvement in macroeconomic conditions, we would expect some level of demand improvement seasonally as we enter next year's spring building season. As for product pricing, the lumber composite has continued to trend lower through October, while the OSB composite has moved slightly higher, although OSB has stabilized over the last couple of weeks. For our lumber business, we anticipate slightly lower production and sales volumes in the fourth quarter and slightly higher unit manufacturing costs. Our log costs are expected to be slightly higher, primarily for Southern logs. For our OSB business, we expect slightly higher sales volumes and fiber costs in the fourth quarter. Unit manufacturing costs are expected to decrease slightly, primarily driven by less planned annual maintenance compared to the third quarter, partially offset by higher resin costs. For our Engineered Wood Products business, we anticipate slightly higher average sales realizations compared to the third quarter. Our sales volumes are expected to decrease slightly for most products, while raw material costs are expected to be moderately higher. For our distribution business, we expect adjusted EBITDA to decrease compared to the third quarter, primarily due to lower sales volumes and margins as we continue to reduce inventory of certain siding and decking products. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Devin and look forward to your questions.

Devin Stockfish: Thanks, Davie. Before wrapping up this morning, I'll make a few comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets. Starting with housing. Overall, housing activity remained lackluster in the third quarter as weak consumer confidence and ongoing affordability challenges continue to weigh on the market. More recently, interest rates have moved higher with mortgage rates now back over 7%, further impacting affordability. At the same time, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to contribute to inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty. Given these headwinds, builder confidence remains low, and we expect housing activity to remain subdued through year-end. But putting aside the current challenges, we do continue to have confidence in the longer-term prospects for U.S. housing. There remains significant pent-up demand given the level of underbuilding in the U.S., demographic trends remain supportive, and there is growing recognition that policies at all levels of government need to better facilitate housing development and address affordability barriers. So while we expect the housing market to remain choppy in the near term, the longer-term fundamentals remain firmly intact. Turning to the repair and remodel market. Activities remained relatively steady this year, generally in line with 2025 levels. Similar to housing, the R&R market continues to be influenced by weak consumer confidence, higher interest rates and broader economic uncertainty. In addition, turnover of existing homes remains well below historical levels as higher mortgage rates and the ongoing lock-in effect continue to keep many homeowners in place. Looking out to Q4, we would expect the typical seasonal slowdown in repair and remodel activity as we move into the colder winter months. And without some improvement in the broader macro environment, consumer confidence, activity could remain relatively muted as we move into next year. But putting aside the near-term headwinds, we remain bullish on the medium- to longer-term prospects for repair and remodel. Home equity levels remain favorable. U.S. housing stock continues to age, and we believe the deferral of large discretionary projects over the last few years will ultimately serve as a tailwind as the macro environment improves. As a final point, it's certainly worth reiterating that while housing and R&R activity are important drivers for our business, what ultimately matters is the balance between supply and demand within each product line. As housing activity has trended down over the past few years, we've also seen a meaningful amount of mill capacity come out of the system. And as we've witnessed over prior housing cycles, supply ultimately adjusts to prevailing demand conditions, supporting industry profitability. So in closing, we continue to make meaningful progress against our strategy, advancing key growth initiatives and taking disciplined actions to enhance the value of our portfolio. Our financial position remains solid and the resilience of our portfolio and the flexibility of our capital allocation framework position us well to navigate the current environment while continuing to invest for the future. We remain intently focused on driving operational excellence, serving our customers and creating superior long-term value for our shareholders. And with that, I think we can open it up for questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

Susan Maklari: My first question is on the Wood Products segment. As we think about the builders' initial preliminary outlook for 2027, that suggests things are continuing to moderate and may stay tougher for a while against that inflationary backdrop that we're seeing. Can you talk about the OpEx initiatives and what that means for your ability to perform in that kind of an environment? And also, as we see capacity coming out in some of these commodity areas, how does OpEx allow you to perform? And what can it mean for Weyerhaeuser and your business as we think about an eventual recovery?

Devin Stockfish: Well, great question. We have been focused on OpEx for over a decade. And as we've said previously, this has just become part of the DNA of how we run the company. And that's true across the businesses. It's true in the corporate environment. And we are constantly looking for new ways to improve efficiency and drive cost out of the business. And what that's resulted in is, by and large, having industry-leading margins across all of our businesses. And I think certainly within our manufacturing operations, having the low cost. And ultimately, when you're in these cyclical businesses, the key is to have low-cost production, and that's what we've been striving for, for many years. But the positive is there's still plenty more to do. Even after we've taken millions and millions and millions of dollars out of our cost structure over the years, we have many initiatives going on at present, more in the pipeline to continue to take costs out of the business. And I think that's one of the things that's core to how you navigate some of these tougher market conditions. This will happen from time to time, and we've certainly seen this in the past. But it positions you well to navigate through the downturn. Where you really start to see that benefit, though, as the market turns. I think we've been doing a lot of things, making investments to really enhance our operations. At some point, the market will turn. It's hard to predict exactly when that will happen, but there's just a tremendous amount of leverage to the upside. But in the meantime, as you're looking at what the industry is working through, we've certainly seen a lot of capacity coming out of the system over the last few years. I think we will continue to see that until you see the supply-demand dynamic come back into equilibrium and how you navigate that is to have the lowest cost. And so that's certainly something that we have been focused on and we'll continue to be focused on.

Susan Maklari: Okay. And then turning to capital allocation. It's nice to see the deal in Arkansas that you announced for some of your Timberlands that will happen for October and the commentary on the buybacks picking up in the fourth quarter. I guess -- can you just talk a little more about your willingness to further divest noncore assets to support shareholder returns, the market for timberland transactions? And also what the current dividend structure allows you to do in this kind of an environment?

David Wold: Yes. You bet, Sue. So I guess just starting with the general timberlands M&A space. I think it's been fairly consistent over the last period of time. We've continued to see a good amount of capital out there looking to be placed in the asset class, recognizing all the benefits that come with the asset class, whether that's alternate values, increasing appreciation of that, whether it's the long-term inflationary hedge aspects, a lot of capital continues to pursue the asset class. So we've continued to see very strong interest in the asset class. For us, having the right dividend framework really is critical to allowing us to withstand periods of time with more challenging market conditions. The last few years have been a great example of this, really demonstrates why our dividend is set at the appropriate level. And so it allows us to make sure we're doing all of the things that we're able to do today in a more challenging condition. That's not been true in previous downturns. And so we're really pleased that we're able to be opportunistic and take advantage of that. And really, that kind of brings me to your question on the portfolio and ability to continue to look at opportunities there. We're always looking at capital allocation opportunities, including the ability to generate additional capital through portfolio optimization while ensuring we're maintaining an appropriate capital structure. So we're going to look at a variety of metrics as we do that. But ultimately, it's all about ensuring we're allocating capital in the way that creates the most value for shareholders. We won't get into any specifics on transactions beyond those that we've announced. But including the recent Arkansas agreement, we're at approximately $450 million in divestitures year-to-date across several transactions. We've long been focused on optimizing our asset portfolio, and we have a handful of additional divestiture opportunities in various stages of evaluation. So to the extent we look at those and conclude there are opportunities to continue to improve the portfolio or capture value in excess of our internal values, we won't hesitate to pursue those.

Operator: Our next question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America.

George Staphos: First question I had was on the Super El Nino and how it could affect the markets as you see them and as you're hearing in the field. And more importantly, Devin, what are you doing, if anything, to position ahead of what those effects might be into 2027? And then I had a question on lumber.

Devin Stockfish: Sure. With respect to the weather events, I think it's primarily going to be impactful in our Southern operations more so than the West. I don't think it will have quite the impact in the West, not at least in the near term. It will have puts and takes. I think we've seen historically when you have very heavy rain events, it can slow construction activity down a little bit. So that can be a little bit of a headwind on in demand. But the flip side of that is on the timberland side, typically, when you see wet weather, that tensions the log supply. One of the benefits of our portfolio is just because of the scale and diversity that we have across geographies. We've also become pretty sophisticated in ensuring that we have wet weather ground to be able to access logs even in wet conditions. We probably got a little bit more complex road network that's allowing us to get into the woods when you have a lot of that rain. So I think the net impact in timberlands in the South will probably be positive if you have a lot of rain events, that will be offset a little bit to the extent that it slows construction activity.

George Staphos: Sure. To the extent, just as a follow-on on that point, would it make sense to build your inventories a little bit ahead of time in anticipation of what might be some constraints and therefore, you could be sort of out in front of your peers? Or you don't need it given what you just said, you have the -- already the access should, in fact, you have that weather supply constraint show up?

Devin Stockfish: Yes, there are a variety of things that we can do, George, with respect to that. You can do a little bit of decking in the woods, and we've done that in the past. But again, we're pretty sophisticated in our planning activities to ensure that we have wet weather ground to be able to get in and access that wood even when you have extended rain events. So we wouldn't necessarily need to do a lot of that. But we have lots of mechanisms in place to be able to handle that if it comes to pass.

George Staphos: Okay. My second question is on lumber and wood, and Sue touched a little bit on it in her question related to OpEx. A number of years ago, obviously, the company was the pioneer, in my view, on Black at the Bottom. You certainly have industry-leading margins. Nonetheless, let's say we're in a more challenging period and certainly where pricing is right now, I get it, it's the fourth quarter. Seasonally, we tend to see worse trends anyway across the industry. You're going to be at relatively thinner margins in lumber, in particular. Is there anything else you can do in line with Black at the Bottom to further improve your cash generation and maybe what's going to be an extended down period in construction. The lumber industry tends to run with -- on paper, a lot of excess capacity because you're not running 7 days. Is there anything you can do from an operation standpoint as you toured the mills that could help you position and take further cost out and generate cash in a tougher period?

Devin Stockfish: Yes. I'd say a few things on that front. We have obviously taken a lot of costs out of the system over the years. We continue to have annual OpEx targets across all of our businesses with the goal being every single mill that we own has a path to be first quartile cost structure if they're not there already. So that's a never-ending process. I would say we've sort of juiced the opportunity set there as we've leaned into innovation. We have some really interesting things going on. For example, AI in the manufacturing environment, I think, has an opportunity to create some additional efficiencies. So the journey to continue to reduce cost is never ending. And that's true, frankly, whether you're in good times or bad times. There's more to be done. We're going to continue getting after that. That's true at the corporate level, by the way. I mean, I think we've got nearly 50 different initiatives on costs going on at the corporate level. So we're going to continue to stay focused on that. I would say the other piece that maybe we don't talk about quite as much is we're also working on differentiated products. So things like our warp-stable product in the lumber business, which typically comes with a premium and finding other opportunities where we can get a higher margin regardless of where we are in the market cycle. So we're looking at all of those opportunities. I would just pivot back to what I mentioned earlier, though, at the outset, you can find yourself in difficult market conditions in this industry. I mean you've been around it for a while, George. You've seen this story play out. Ultimately, you're going to see additional capacity come out until it balances with the level of demand. And we've seen this story playing out over the last few years. Q4 is a little bit more challenging. It's always a little bit more challenging. We'll see how that plays out. But I do think that the floor is higher as we move into next year, given all of the capacity that's come out of the system. And I would expect that to continue to happen until the market -- the industry gets in a little bit better margin position overall.

Operator: Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Anthony Pettinari: Devin, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about OSB and maybe specifically your operating rates, what you're seeing in the market? You've been EBITDA negative for, I guess, 4 out of the last 5 quarters. And -- but we've seen, I think, 2 pretty meaningful curtailments, including one this week. I'm just kind of wondering if we have flattish demand next year, is it enough? Or I just wonder if you could dig a little bit deeper just on OSB and kind of expectations there.

Devin Stockfish: Sure. Well, I mean, as you know, it's a product that is primarily driven by what's going on in single-family, and that has been soft for a while. I'll just reiterate the main point, though, which is you can make a lot of money at 1.1 million, 1.2 million housing starts, even if it fell further from where we are today as long as the supply is more or less in balance with that level of demand. And we've seen that probably play out a little bit more slowly in the OSB market than we did lumber. I mean on the lumber side, we're probably close to 60 mills that have shut down over the last few years. We haven't seen that level of capacity reduction on OSB. But ultimately, as a general matter, the industry will, at some point, blink and you'll see more capacity come out of the system until that gets into balance. I do think when you look at what's happened with OSB pricing here recently, it's not as though the price increases that we've seen over the last handful of weeks have been driven by an increase in demand. It is almost entirely supply driven. I don't know that we've necessarily fully seen the impacts of the latest closure announcement, but I would expect that to have an impact as well. And we'll see as the market plays out over the next, call it, 3 to 6 months, if you don't see a meaningful improvement in OSB prices, I wouldn't be surprised to see more capacity come out. That's obviously beyond our control. Our operating rates are pretty comparable quarter-over-quarter. We have less planned annual maintenance in Q4. And so that will have [indiscernible] results. But ultimately, we're focused on what we can do to drive value, and that is primarily continuing to take costs out of the system, run efficiently and look for opportunities for higher-value products that we can go out and drive a little bit of extra margin in this environment. That all being said, unfortunately, this is just kind of what happens once in a while when you go through these housing cycles. The one thing I would point out on that front, however, is when you see capacity come out to match demand in a down market, eventually markets turn over and you have a period where you have a pretty significant profit opportunity there for some period of time. So I'm not going to tell you I can predict exactly when that's going to happen, but it's out there and it will come.

Anthony Pettinari: Very helpful. And then just switching gears, I think you mentioned that the 10% tariff on logs to China could be reduced. I thought that there was differential tariffs between the U.S. West and the U.S. South. Maybe that's dated. But is there any action on southern logs and just more generally, relaxation of Chinese tariffs on U.S. logs, West and/or South, like how meaningful could it be?

Devin Stockfish: Yes, this has moved around a lot over the last several years. Where we are today is there's a 10% tariff. It's not necessarily specific to one species versus the other. The issue that you have right now is there is a phytosanitary concern, which we think is not really an issue, but it's something we've been dealing with for several years that is really prohibiting southern logs from going into China. We're continuing to work that both with the U.S. government and the Chinese government. But the issue today that we're optimistic about is the 10% tariff coming off, really allowing us to have a little bit more optionality and frankly, capture a little more price on our export logs out of the West into China. And so as we noted, we're going to be increasing our shipments to China in Q4. The market in China is not great. The housing market is still pretty challenged. But that being said, our customers are looking for more volume. If we can take that 10% tariff off, that just gives us some additional opportunity to capture margin. So obviously, a net positive for us.

Operator: Our next question comes from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora: Maybe to start with, Devin, can you provide any more color on the -- on just the profile of the Arkansas land, the noncore timberlands that you are divesting in the context of roughly about $1,800 an acre value?

Devin Stockfish: Sure. Well, this is a continuation of an effort we've had ongoing for a number of years, both on the buy side and the sell side, always looking to improve our portfolio of timberlands. These timberlands are -- they're fine. But for us specifically, they're pretty fragmented. They're not necessarily really close to any of our existing mills. I don't know that they have a ton of SLS optionality involved. And so really, as we look at our overall portfolio, these didn't make sense for those to stay within our portfolio. So that was the opportunity. We feel like it's good value. I think the buyer will be happy with them. It just didn't really fit with what we're looking for existing -- within our existing portfolio.

Ketan Mamtora: Understood. That's helpful. And then maybe just switching to freight and transportation challenges. Any way to quantify what was the drag in Q3? And how are you all thinking about freight transportation in Q4? Are you seeing things sort of stabilize? Or is this -- could this potentially kind of continue into '27?

David Wold: Sure, Ketan. This is Davie. So broadly speaking, on the freight environment, I think we've seen some improvement in the broader transportation availability. But when we look at the cost profile and think about the impacts of the conflict of the Middle East, we've certainly had an impact not only in the transportation space, but also as we think about things like additives and resin, timberlands, of course, log and haul costs, ocean freight, wood products, of course, that's the outbound transportation piece. So back at the outset of the Iran conflict, I think our guidance was we had anticipated somewhere around $10 million per month on a gross basis. But of course, with energy costs, and particularly diesel costs increasing dramatically over the course of the summer and even more so here as we got deeper into the fall, we're now probably somewhere around $20 million to $25 million per month. Of course, our teams are focused every day on doing everything they can to offset those costs where possible, leveraging our procurement, logistics expertise, seeing opportunities for us to share those costs with vendors and customers. I'd say today, we're probably somewhere in the ballpark of sharing half of those costs and then absorbing the remainder. So as we think about looking forward for our guide for the fourth quarter, we've assumed that the environment remains roughly consistent with where it was late in Q3. But of course, certainly, if we see fuel costs move significantly one way or another, that's going to have an impact on our results. So again, we'll continue to monitor that and be focused on disciplined execution and cost control as always.

Operator: Our next question comes from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

Kurt Yinger: I wanted to talk a little bit on the capital spending side. I was just hoping you could speak kind of at a high level to how you're thinking about 2027 sort of between baseline, Monticello, McComb. And then maybe bigger picture, the flexibility that you have to maybe remain below that $400 million to $450 million range over a multiyear period?

David Wold: Yes. You bet, Kurt. So high level, we're not going to give specifics on 2027 numbers today. We'll provide guidance for 2027 at the outset of the year as we typically do. I'll note, this year, we did reduce the CapEx guidance for that programmatic ongoing bucket to $375 million, down from the $400 million to $450 million multiyear guide. We're always looking at the appropriate amount of spend given factors like market conditions, capital allocation alternatives alongside that commitment to returning significant cash back to shareholders. And ultimately, for 2026, we thought that was appropriate and the right path. And so we are pleased that we have been able to maintain meaningful investment in that programmatic ongoing CapEx bucket even through these more challenging market conditions over the past several years. Those are often some of our highest return dollars that we can invest. And ultimately, making sure we're investing in our businesses is going to allow us to capitalize when we do ultimately see improvement in broader market conditions. So we view that as really important. But again, it's also a lever to us as we think about it. Monticello, again, that's progressing quite well. We'll provide more of an update on that as we get into 2027. But we're on track for that start-up midway through 2027, which is aligned with our initial schedule for the project. Our original cost estimate was about $500 million when we announced it back in 2024. But as we've mentioned, we have seen pressures on the cost side. And so we're ultimately working through that, finding ways to minimize that where possible. But we've also seen some opportunities for increased upside on that project, whether it's some of that increased spend going through to additional benefits, finding opportunities in tax-exempt financing or R&D tax credits. And so we do, at this point, believe that it's going to be moderately higher than that $500 million initial estimate. And so that's kind of the remaining piece that we would spend in 2027. But in short, the profile, the return profile remains very attractive, particularly with all the integration benefits that it provides across our [ fee ] wood basket.

Kurt Yinger: Okay. All right. That's helpful. Just second on the Climate Solutions business. You highlighted a couple of -- success on a couple of initiatives, and there's a lot of different moving pieces there. I was just hoping you could talk about maybe what you think is going to be most incremental as we kind of think about 2027 and that continued growth path towards the 2030 targets?

Devin Stockfish: Yes. I'd say, by and large, things are going pretty well for Climate Solutions. We're seeing good progress across almost all of the various initiatives. We highlighted several -- some of these are just going to continue to build year-over-year. I'll give an example for solar. We've got 5 under construction in addition to the 2 that are currently operational. I would expect we'll probably have, by the end of the year, 8 under construction, and we're just going to keep piling these on year after year. And so those will grow over time. And the beauty there is it's just an ongoing revenue stream that we'll have for 30 or 40 years. We're really excited about biocarbon. That's probably one of the most exciting things that we have going on in the Climate Solutions space right now. As we mentioned, we broke ground on our first facility. We're looking at several new facilities. That's probably a couple of years out before it really starts generating meaningful EBITDA, but the opportunity set there is really large. The total addressable market for metallurgical coal is enormous. And so that could be a growth engine for many, many years to come. So we've got a whole host of things. They're going to just incrementally keep building. I'd say forest carbon is another one. We're seeing really good momentum this year, pretty significant uptick relative to carbon sales last year. We've got new projects in the pipeline. So that all is progressing well. So I would say, on balance, I'm pretty impressed with the team and their ability to continue to drive this business forward, and we keep finding new opportunities every day. For example, the geothermal deal that we just announced. So we're going to keep at it. I wouldn't say it's going to have a step change improvement next year, but we're building towards something that's going to be a really important part of our overall earnings stream.

Operator: Our next question comes from Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew McKellar: You mentioned AI as a potential cost savings driver in your manufacturing operations in response to an earlier question. Certainly not a new theme, and you talked about AI at your Investor Day last December. But just given the pace of change in that space, could you maybe provide some updated perspective on any incremental opportunities that you might be seeing develop on that front over the past year?

Devin Stockfish: Sure. Well, we've got a whole host of things going on in the AI front. We brought somebody over from Amazon to lead our AI efforts, and we've been continuing to staff and resource that group. I would say the AI efforts really cut across the entirety of our businesses. I mentioned AI in the manufacturing environment. If you think about all of the various decisions and opportunity to drive efficiencies in that environment, if you can layer AI on top of the expertise that we have, it's just a really big opportunity. I think preventative maintenance could be a significant driver. And so that's actually progressing quite well. We've got a whole host of pilots going. They're going pretty well. And so we're expecting to start rolling this out more meaningfully as we get into 2027. In the Timberlands business, we've got a variety of efforts going on, things ranging from leveraging AI and machine learning on drone imagery to really eliminate some of the work that our folks have to do out in the woods, think survival checks and post-thinning checks, there are a variety of things we can do there, geospatial mapping with AI that feeds into both how we operate our timberlands, but also how we think about A&D activity. So we've got a variety of things going, and it's a really exciting time. And I really -- I think this is an area if we lean into it, we can have a period of time where we're going to generate a real meaningful competitive advantage in the marketplace.

Matthew McKellar: Great. And then second for me, just regarding site selection for future biocarbon projects, McComb seems like a really good template here, but could you maybe just provide a bit more detail on how you evaluate where to site these assets given the breadth of your Timberlands and Wood Products portfolios? Maybe anything you've learned as you develop the first facility, have spoken to more customers, et cetera?

Devin Stockfish: There are a few things that go into that decision-making. One of the reasons why we're out leading in this space is because we have the scale of timberland operations. We have scaled manufacturing operations for generating residuals. We have a very sophisticated forest supply chain, and we bring those to the table with our partners at Aymium, and it's just a very powerful combination. As you think about where you want to site these, to some degree, it's about logistics. To some degree, it's about finding the right community that's going to provide support to do these projects. But I would say the biggest one is really where do we have, say, an excess of pulp log supply and maybe not enough pulp log demand or if there's an area where a pulp mill has gone down and we need a home for residuals. We just got a lot of opportunity, and it's an effort that combines our SLS group together with our Timberlands group, together with our Wood Products group to really dial in what are the right places to put this. And the beauty of it is we have the ability largely to site these in areas that benefit Weyerhaeuser specifically. And I think that's just -- in addition to the EBITDA opportunities, which are significant, I'd say equally important is the ability to look across our portfolio and find places where it's most impactful and helpful to our ongoing Timberlands and Wood Products operations.

Operator: Our next question comes from Hamir Patel with CIBC Capital Markets.

Hamir Patel: Devin, could you comment on how the current rate backdrop is changing discount rates for timberlands in the private market? And also just on that private market for timberlands, are you seeing any signs of potential conversions of timberlands to ag land in some areas, just given where farmland values have moved relative to timberlands?

Devin Stockfish: Sure. With respect to discount rates, you really don't see meaningful changes year-over-year. I mean, over a very long period of time, obviously, if you see a step change in the rate environment, you'll see that eventually move. But we really haven't seen either to the upside or the downside, a whole lot of movement in discount rates in terms of timberlands. Typically, this is a buyer community that has a very long-term view. And so you just don't see a lot of variability, and we haven't seen that here recently. With respect to land conversions, you're seeing a little bit around the margins. To be candid, I'm a little surprised you haven't seen more of that given what's happened, as you say, with farm prices, particularly in some of these areas where you do have access to water. And I think there are plenty of places in the South where over time, that could potentially happen. I wouldn't say it's been meaningful, at least not to my understanding as of yet, but that is something that could increase over time.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

Mark Weintraub: Maybe just probing a little bit more into the Timberland private market valuations, recognizing you don't want to make too much of one transaction. But for the Arkansas transaction at roughly $1,800 an acre, if you were to have been moving forward on this a couple of years ago, is it fair to say you would have thought the values would have been relatively similar? And then also just you had talked about that when you are going through the evaluation of potential sales that you're going to look for situations where you get in excess of your internal values. And presumably, I just want to clarify that, that is separate than where your equity might be trading and so implied values, which presumably at this juncture, where your stock is, is significantly lower than what your internal values are. Is that a fair way to understand that?

David Wold: Yes. This is Davie. That's a fair way to think about that. That's right. We think about our internal values over the long term kind of our intrinsic value of that, which can be different than what is implied in our share price, certainly. On the Arkansas acreage, I mean, I think broadly speaking, I think you've seen strong improvement in timberland price per acre over the last 5, 10, 15 years, you've seen quite a bit of improvement in that. And so I do think you've seen an increased price. But yes, over the last couple of years, I think in the relative ballpark, maybe perhaps a little bit higher than what it would have traded on a couple of years ago.

Mark Weintraub: Okay. And I ask that in the context of NCREIF, I think their latest estimate of average U.S. Southern acre, recognizing all acres are different, is like $2,200, $2,300 per acre in the South, and this is obviously a fair bit below that. What would -- any thoughts to share specific to that observation?

David Wold: Yes. I mean, Devin hit on some of the aspects. I mean, these are good quality timberlands in the scheme of things. I mean, certainly, lower half quality within our portfolio, certainly strong in the context of the investable universe of timberlands from an asset quality. But again, it's a nice opportunity for us to continue to upgrade the overall quality of our portfolio and capitalize on the disconnect between our internal value and what we're able to realize.

Operator: Our next question comes from Buck Horne with Raymond James.

Buck Horne: I wanted to follow up on the -- some of the -- comments about some of the mill closures and curtailments that we've seen across the industry. I think one of your large competitors just announced a couple of mill -- more closures in the U.S. South and one in Arkansas, one in Alabama. I was just wondering really what the -- if there's any potential impact on your log pricing or pulp pricing relative to those mill closures or acreage that you have that's nearby or adjacent to some of these mills that are shutting down.

Devin Stockfish: Yes, I wouldn't really expect much from log price or volume from us. Neither of those mills were big customers for Weyerhaeuser.

Buck Horne: Okay. That's very helpful. Appreciate that. And it sounds like you're making a ton of progress with solar, these installations in these solar farms and access to utility-grade electricity. Does that potentially lead to any conversations with data center developers or any hyperscalers or any -- is there any possibilities out there that you might be able to leverage some of your access to solar to offer a more complete solution to some of these developers?

Devin Stockfish: Absolutely, 100%. We have got active discussions today going on with 7 or 8 different -- on 7 or 8 different sites for data center development, a variety of parties. What we can bring to the table, and particularly, we've been leaning into this a little bit more going into the entitlement and starting to get some of the approvals upfront, and working with parties on getting some of these sites powered. As you probably know, if you've got a site where you've got entitlement, you've got community support, you've got access to power, that land becomes incredibly valuable. And so we're actively working that. Like I said, we've got a handful of conversations ongoing now, and we're continuing to build out a further pipeline. So I think that's actually a pretty decent opportunity for us in the relatively near term.

Operator: Our next question comes from Hong Zhang with JPMorgan Chase.

Hong Zhang: I guess in light of your revised tax rate guidance, is there a rule of thumb to think about what level of Wood Products earnings contribution would be needed for your tax rate to be positive instead of a benefit?

David Wold: Yes, Hong. I mean, I think it's tough to get into any sort of rule of thumb on that. We did continue to see a tax provision credit in the current quarter. The way that works under GAAP, you're going to look at the estimated annual effective rate for the full year and then use that to record expense in each period. You're going to make adjustments for discrete items. That can move around from period to period. But yes, I mean, the biggest driver is going to be the ultimate mix of earnings between the REIT and TRS. And so that's probably what I would point you to there.

Operator: Our last question comes from Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

Michael Roxland: First one, you mentioned increasing the share repos in 4Q. You bought back $10 million last quarter, I think, $30 million year-to-date. How much do you intend to repurchase in 4Q? And is this something that you intend to continue beyond 4Q if the valuation gap between private and public markets persist? And lastly, do you need to run -- when you think about accelerating or increasing the amount you intend to buy back, do you have to run this approach by your credit agencies given your elevated leverage as you would be selling EBITDA-generating assets?

David Wold: Yes. Sure, Mike. So I guess with respect to share repurchase, we're not going to get into the specifics of a particular number for next quarter. Our process is consistent here. We think about it as a useful tool for returning cash back to shareholders in the right circumstance. And again, it's become an increasingly attractive lever in light of the disconnect to our underlying asset value. We did indicate that we're going to use a portion of the proceeds from the Arkansas divestiture towards share repurchase, and we're pleased with the opportunity to capitalize on the disconnect between our intrinsic value and the share price. So we'll continue to look for opportunities to do that. With respect to the agencies, I mean, we have conversations with them all the time. We can't speak for them. But I think when we look at our leverage position, maintaining that investment-grade credit rating is foundational for us. We've taken deliberate steps over the years to ensure we've got the right dividend framework, the operating performance, the strategy to be able to operate in cyclical businesses. And so importantly, you need to remember that the 3.5x net debt-to-EBITDA target is really designed to be evaluated over the cycle and not at the trough. I mean, as we've spoken to this morning, even in an environment where we don't see a meaningful uplift in housing demand, if we can just get supply/demand to the right place, it doesn't take much in terms of normalization from an EBITDA perspective to get us back to that 3.5x target.

Michael Roxland: Got it. And one quick follow-up, maybe. Just on Monticello, you lowered CapEx by $50 million. I realize the project timing has not changed. But is it something you're not pursuing with respect to that project, especially you've taken out $50 million of CapEx?

David Wold: Yes. No, I think that's just the normal variability of the cash flows. Our initial estimate was $300 million for the year. As you get deeper into the year, you're always balancing, do you have any opportunities to manage some of that spend in a different way? And so we're always looking to make sure we can do that while still maintaining our project time frame. So the team has done a nice job of doing that, allowed us to defer some of that cash outlay into 2027, but it's on track. We are pleased with how that project is progressing.

Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Devin Stockfish for closing comments.

Devin Stockfish: Okay. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning, and thank you for your continued interest in Weyerhaeuser. Have a great day.

Operator: This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.